The US Presidential Poll Part 7

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From a conservative viewpoint, there has been little that has been tradeable for awhile on these charts. Unsurprisingly, they have begun to form triangle-like consolidations, which is common to any chart before the breaking of a final event. Trump, however, has recently benefitted from a surge, likely due to the resurgence of Clinton’s email saga. This gives us a potential Wyckoffian upthrust scenario, and thus, to be complete, I have supplied resistance for Trump at 45.83-47.52. He is currently at 45.6, just shy of it.

The US Presidential Poll Part 6

Support and resistance did not work out so well in this latest action from the polls. Trump has now consistently broken his support/resistance zones fractionally before resisting them, and Clinton appears to have acquired this bad habit, as can be seen below. From an accuracy standpoint, this is definitely a minus. From a trading standpoint, it is a “no trade” situation as traders would not have acquired “triggers”, which is a sign that momentum was turning around, at either of these zones. Thus, we will continue calculating and anticipating the next zones.


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Given Trump’s tenacity in breaking levels, I am going to adjust the next support zone to account for that. Thus, his new support zone is at 36.91-39.17.

The method used in anticipating Hillary is the standard one. Although she did overshoot the previous resistance, one instance doth not a bad habit make. Her support zone is 42.31-44.22.


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The US Presidential Poll Part 5


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In the previous post, we said that what was next would be very interesting, and that if Clinton failed to respect that 45.95-46.21 support, she could plummet close to Trump. Well, as of 20th October, she did. This should be a source of some concern for Clinton supporters, as we now have a clearer idea of the time cycles alluded in the second post of the presidential election:

Each swing up or down thus far has been approximately a month in time (see the chart below). The fact that she has made a significant move down even in what was supposed to be an upswing could be construed to be a sign of technical weakness.


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Very well. What, now? Well, Trump still has to struggle to break his resistance zone at 43.61-44.60 – that much hasn’t changed since the previous post. Resistance for Trump is indicated in red. Clinton, however, has lost her upward trend. Some technical analysts would say that she is in a downtrend. Whilst the timing cycle is beginning to turn against her, I would say that she is more likely to go into consolidation.

My methods of anticipating support for her would suggest a support zone at 43.26-44.96, indicated in blue below. Even if she was able to rebound, she now has resistance overhead as well at 47.35-48.51, which is also indicated in blue.


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IN SUMMARY:  Clinton still holds the upper hand, somewhat, as her chart shows signs of going sideways in a range that has resistance at 47.35-48.51 and support at 43.61-44.60. (Imagine her blue line bouncing like a ping pong ball between the two blue boxes until one breaks.) Trump still has to overcome overhead resistance at 43.61-44.60. (His red line has to break the red box. He might do a typical one-day pierce of the topside in Trump fashion, but thus far even he has had to respect various levels of support and resistance.)

Finally, for those who are scratching their heads and thinking that this is too complicated, it is worth noting that in spite of what non-chartists think, there is a certain level of skill that must be acquired in the art of technical analysis, however inexact that art might be. Just read the previous paragraph and look at the last chart for the relevant conclusions.

Have fun!

The US Presidential Poll Part 4


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Well, the turning points came in, and Clinton’s high of 50.4 was right in expected region of 49.62-51.61. Trump, true to form, decided to push the envelope by exceeding the 40.74-41.36 region slightly to make a low at 40.4. From an accuracy standpoint, a strict judge would say the score is still at 50-50 accuracy. From a trading standpoint, it simply means that Trump’s chart would not have been traded, if this poll had been tradeable, because it showed no signs of turning upwards until support was broken. (On the other hand, Clinton’s high was eminently tradeable, and would have yielded a beautiful trade.

So much for that. What’s next?

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What is next is very interesting. Clinton is now at a key support level. If the 45.95 level fails to hold, she could plummet dangerously close to Trump in the days to come. Trump, on the other hand, has an uphill battle. His chart is potentially forming a two-legged pullback. It has already formed a recent high at 43 on 16th October before being pushed down. The 43.61-44.60 region is now extremely significant resistance. Thus far, it seems as if the time cycles are still in force and Clinton is maintaining the upper hand. However, should these zones fail to hold, then things could change very quickly.

Watch this space!

The US Presidential Poll Part 3


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In this update, we see that Clinton stayed (unsurprisingly) above the level of support we indicated before, which is at 45.18. Trump’s ratings took a little plunge. The low of 10th October is 40.8.

So, what’s next?

Well, let’s see if we can identify the next turning points. Clinton’s next resistance zone is at 49.62-51.61. That’s not too far away from her current recent high – 48.6. If she breaks through this, which seems unlikely, then she will have some clear space to run till the next resistance zone.


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Trump, on the other hand, in spite of his somewhat alarming recent drop, has two clusters of support at 40.74-41.36 and 39.6-40.24. Considering that he is already at 40.8, he will have to rally in the next day or two to catch his breath. If not, he will have to draw support from the 39.6-40.24. It is unlikely that he will drop much lower to the next support zone. My personal guess would be that the support zone which works for him will be the one that he is in at the time Clinton hits her resistance. Watch this space.

The US Presidential Poll Part 2


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It’s been a few days since the presidential poll post, so let’s see how the chartists did.

Clinton’s portion of the chart reacted quite nicely to the anticipated top projected by the trendline, making a high of 48.4 on 4th October before rapidly dropping in response to resistance.

Trump’s chart, perhaps in keeping with his personality, broke with tradition and extended on the same day slightly past the support zone of 43.01-43.62. After this one-day breach, the force of support rapidly came back into play and pushed him upwards again.

Big deal, Kaye. That’s a 50-50. True – I won’t waste time defending the chartists on this one, as we don’t yet have enough data to tell either way. However, to continue the game, let’s view the chart from another perspective.


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You will note that from a pure timing cycle perspective, the hills and valleys displayed by Clinton and Trump (which correspond to each other, quite logically) seem to follow a very specific timing cycle of approximately two months in length. Although the humps and valleys are not located exactly at the middle of this time cycle, you will note that that they are reasonably close to it. (Yes, I am aware that there is a gap between the first and second cycles. Basically, there is an inverted time cycle there, but I don’t want to over-complicate the analysis.)

Assuming the time cycles continue to play out, it is not great news for Trump, for the election will coincide with a peak for Clinton in the time cycle.

Naturally, this is not written in stone, because, as was already pointed out two paragraphs ago, time cycles can invert. However, given that the turning has probably already been formed (we are seeing higher highs and higher lows in Clinton’s blue line and lower highs and lower lows in Trump’s), this seems to be a useful predictive model for how things will turn out. In this case, we shall proceed assuming that Clinton’s chart will go higher.

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The key technical level for Clinton’s chart is 45.18, using several methods of assessing support. Should her poll level drop below this point, the time cycle may be invalidated. Interestingly, the last low for her came in 5th October at 45.2, just above this level. We shall see if that holds. If she manages to make a new high, then we can safely assume the cycle is in force.

I have left the analysis for Trump out as the charts should be approximate inverts of each other.