Basic Reversal Chart Patterns

This is a document I was writing for an upcoming presentation. Although the information is basic, some may still find it useful, so I am posting it here.

Basic Chart Patterns Degrees 1 and 2

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MoneyShow.com Election Article

I have had several requests recently for the MoneyShow.com article on the EURGBP trade, published here:

http://www.moneyshow.com/articles/currency-42662/

It appears that the link has been corrupted or is being updated, and the charts are not appearing accurately. Thus, for a short period, I am providing the original article in pdf below, until things have stabilised:

how-will-the-uk-election-turn-outhow-will-the-uk-election-turn-out

The trade on EURGBP turned out profitably, as shown below:

uk-election-eurgbp-trade-result

 

The US Presidential Poll Part 7

Presidential Poll 7a.png

Raw chart source: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/us-election-2016-polls-and-odds-tracker-latest-forecast/

From a conservative viewpoint, there has been little that has been tradeable for awhile on these charts. Unsurprisingly, they have begun to form triangle-like consolidations, which is common to any chart before the breaking of a final event. Trump, however, has recently benefitted from a surge, likely due to the resurgence of Clinton’s email saga. This gives us a potential Wyckoffian upthrust scenario, and thus, to be complete, I have supplied resistance for Trump at 45.83-47.52. He is currently at 45.6, just shy of it.

The US Presidential Poll Part 6

Support and resistance did not work out so well in this latest action from the polls. Trump has now consistently broken his support/resistance zones fractionally before resisting them, and Clinton appears to have acquired this bad habit, as can be seen below. From an accuracy standpoint, this is definitely a minus. From a trading standpoint, it is a “no trade” situation as traders would not have acquired “triggers”, which is a sign that momentum was turning around, at either of these zones. Thus, we will continue calculating and anticipating the next zones.

presidential-poll-6apresidential-poll-6b

Raw chart source: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/us-election-2016-polls-and-odds-tracker-latest-forecast-and-maps1/

Given Trump’s tenacity in breaking levels, I am going to adjust the next support zone to account for that. Thus, his new support zone is at 36.91-39.17.

The method used in anticipating Hillary is the standard one. Although she did overshoot the previous resistance, one instance doth not a bad habit make. Her support zone is 42.31-44.22.

presidential-poll-6c

Raw chart source:http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/us-election-2016-polls-and-odds-tracker-latest-forecast-and-maps1/

The US Presidential Poll Part 5

presidential-poll-5a

Raw chart source: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/us-election-2016-polls-and-odds-tracker-latest-forecast-and-maps1/

In the previous post, we said that what was next would be very interesting, and that if Clinton failed to respect that 45.95-46.21 support, she could plummet close to Trump. Well, as of 20th October, she did. This should be a source of some concern for Clinton supporters, as we now have a clearer idea of the time cycles alluded in the second post of the presidential election:

https://straighttalktrading.wordpress.com/2016/10/11/the-us-presidential-poll-part-2/

Each swing up or down thus far has been approximately a month in time (see the chart below). The fact that she has made a significant move down even in what was supposed to be an upswing could be construed to be a sign of technical weakness.

presidential-poll-5b

Raw chart source: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/us-election-2016-polls-and-odds-tracker-latest-forecast-and-maps1/

Very well. What, now? Well, Trump still has to struggle to break his resistance zone at 43.61-44.60 – that much hasn’t changed since the previous post. Resistance for Trump is indicated in red. Clinton, however, has lost her upward trend. Some technical analysts would say that she is in a downtrend. Whilst the timing cycle is beginning to turn against her, I would say that she is more likely to go into consolidation.

My methods of anticipating support for her would suggest a support zone at 43.26-44.96, indicated in blue below. Even if she was able to rebound, she now has resistance overhead as well at 47.35-48.51, which is also indicated in blue.

presidential-poll-5c

Raw chart source: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/us-election-2016-polls-and-odds-tracker-latest-forecast-and-maps1/

IN SUMMARY:  Clinton still holds the upper hand, somewhat, as her chart shows signs of going sideways in a range that has resistance at 47.35-48.51 and support at 43.61-44.60. (Imagine her blue line bouncing like a ping pong ball between the two blue boxes until one breaks.) Trump still has to overcome overhead resistance at 43.61-44.60. (His red line has to break the red box. He might do a typical one-day pierce of the topside in Trump fashion, but thus far even he has had to respect various levels of support and resistance.)

Finally, for those who are scratching their heads and thinking that this is too complicated, it is worth noting that in spite of what non-chartists think, there is a certain level of skill that must be acquired in the art of technical analysis, however inexact that art might be. Just read the previous paragraph and look at the last chart for the relevant conclusions.

Have fun!

The US Presidential Poll Part 4

presidential-poll-4a

Raw chart source: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/us-election-2016-polls-and-odds-tracker-latest-forecast-and-maps/

Well, the turning points came in, and Clinton’s high of 50.4 was right in expected region of 49.62-51.61. Trump, true to form, decided to push the envelope by exceeding the 40.74-41.36 region slightly to make a low at 40.4. From an accuracy standpoint, a strict judge would say the score is still at 50-50 accuracy. From a trading standpoint, it simply means that Trump’s chart would not have been traded, if this poll had been tradeable, because it showed no signs of turning upwards until support was broken. (On the other hand, Clinton’s high was eminently tradeable, and would have yielded a beautiful trade.

So much for that. What’s next?

Presidential Poll 4b.jpg

Raw chart source: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/us-election-2016-polls-and-odds-tracker-latest-forecast-and-maps/

What is next is very interesting. Clinton is now at a key support level. If the 45.95 level fails to hold, she could plummet dangerously close to Trump in the days to come. Trump, on the other hand, has an uphill battle. His chart is potentially forming a two-legged pullback. It has already formed a recent high at 43 on 16th October before being pushed down. The 43.61-44.60 region is now extremely significant resistance. Thus far, it seems as if the time cycles are still in force and Clinton is maintaining the upper hand. However, should these zones fail to hold, then things could change very quickly.

Watch this space!