For those just joining the saga, the discussion of the setup for this trade is available here:
This is the most recent situation.
There is at least one hourly close beyond the top of the Blue Box identified in the previous post. I have often written for third party sites in the past, such as www.DailyFX.com. In those situations, this particular condition would render the Blue Box null and void, as there is always a slight lag between composition and publication, rendering it tricky for me to adjust any trade setups.
However, in this case, as this is Straight Talk Trading’s own blog, I can point out that the wave count is still valid. I can also point out that a smaller set of waves, with a very large wave iii, has developed. This is one of the rare situations in which adjusting the Blue Box slightly to account for the smaller wave setup is valid, and thus I will take the opportunity to do so here, as shown below.
The adjusted Blue Box is 1763.12-1767.70. It is simply considered an extension of the original Box. This technique is only applied once, and in this case, will only permit one entry, whereas I am usually willing to try up to twice per Blue Box setup. In this case, price is so close to the high of the Box that a stop out would result in the Box being invalidated.
Should price continue upwards, it would probably be wise to step back and see what will happen next before making the next trading decision. It is extremely rare that price is able to break past two Boxes in a row without so much as a pause, but the extreme momentum upwards in the shorter timeframes of the past day is enough to give one pause. Nonetheless, rules are rules and trading plans are designed especially for these moments of uncertainty to guide our judgement. I shall continue to comment as the trade develops, should it trigger.
Head Trader Consultant