presidential-poll-5a

Raw chart source: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/us-election-2016-polls-and-odds-tracker-latest-forecast-and-maps1/

In the previous post, we said that what was next would be very interesting, and that if Clinton failed to respect that 45.95-46.21 support, she could plummet close to Trump. Well, as of 20th October, she did. This should be a source of some concern for Clinton supporters, as we now have a clearer idea of the time cycles alluded in the second post of the presidential election:

https://straighttalktrading.wordpress.com/2016/10/11/the-us-presidential-poll-part-2/

Each swing up or down thus far has been approximately a month in time (see the chart below). The fact that she has made a significant move down even in what was supposed to be an upswing could be construed to be a sign of technical weakness.

presidential-poll-5b

Raw chart source: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/us-election-2016-polls-and-odds-tracker-latest-forecast-and-maps1/

Very well. What, now? Well, Trump still has to struggle to break his resistance zone at 43.61-44.60 – that much hasn’t changed since the previous post. Resistance for Trump is indicated in red. Clinton, however, has lost her upward trend. Some technical analysts would say that she is in a downtrend. Whilst the timing cycle is beginning to turn against her, I would say that she is more likely to go into consolidation.

My methods of anticipating support for her would suggest a support zone at 43.26-44.96, indicated in blue below. Even if she was able to rebound, she now has resistance overhead as well at 47.35-48.51, which is also indicated in blue.

presidential-poll-5c

Raw chart source: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/us-election-2016-polls-and-odds-tracker-latest-forecast-and-maps1/

IN SUMMARY:  Clinton still holds the upper hand, somewhat, as her chart shows signs of going sideways in a range that has resistance at 47.35-48.51 and support at 43.61-44.60. (Imagine her blue line bouncing like a ping pong ball between the two blue boxes until one breaks.) Trump still has to overcome overhead resistance at 43.61-44.60. (His red line has to break the red box. He might do a typical one-day pierce of the topside in Trump fashion, but thus far even he has had to respect various levels of support and resistance.)

Finally, for those who are scratching their heads and thinking that this is too complicated, it is worth noting that in spite of what non-chartists think, there is a certain level of skill that must be acquired in the art of technical analysis, however inexact that art might be. Just read the previous paragraph and look at the last chart for the relevant conclusions.

Have fun!

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