presidential-poll-4a

Raw chart source: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/us-election-2016-polls-and-odds-tracker-latest-forecast-and-maps/

Well, the turning points came in, and Clinton’s high of 50.4 was right in expected region of 49.62-51.61. Trump, true to form, decided to push the envelope by exceeding the 40.74-41.36 region slightly to make a low at 40.4. From an accuracy standpoint, a strict judge would say the score is still at 50-50 accuracy. From a trading standpoint, it simply means that Trump’s chart would not have been traded, if this poll had been tradeable, because it showed no signs of turning upwards until support was broken. (On the other hand, Clinton’s high was eminently tradeable, and would have yielded a beautiful trade.

So much for that. What’s next?

Presidential Poll 4b.jpg

Raw chart source: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/us-election-2016-polls-and-odds-tracker-latest-forecast-and-maps/

What is next is very interesting. Clinton is now at a key support level. If the 45.95 level fails to hold, she could plummet dangerously close to Trump in the days to come. Trump, on the other hand, has an uphill battle. His chart is potentially forming a two-legged pullback. It has already formed a recent high at 43 on 16th October before being pushed down. The 43.61-44.60 region is now extremely significant resistance. Thus far, it seems as if the time cycles are still in force and Clinton is maintaining the upper hand. However, should these zones fail to hold, then things could change very quickly.

Watch this space!

Advertisements