presidential-poll-2a

Raw chart source: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/us-election-2016-polls-and-odds-tracker-latest-forecast-in-race/

It’s been a few days since the presidential poll post, so let’s see how the chartists did.

Clinton’s portion of the chart reacted quite nicely to the anticipated top projected by the trendline, making a high of 48.4 on 4th October before rapidly dropping in response to resistance.

Trump’s chart, perhaps in keeping with his personality, broke with tradition and extended on the same day slightly past the support zone of 43.01-43.62. After this one-day breach, the force of support rapidly came back into play and pushed him upwards again.

Big deal, Kaye. That’s a 50-50. True – I won’t waste time defending the chartists on this one, as we don’t yet have enough data to tell either way. However, to continue the game, let’s view the chart from another perspective.

presidential-poll-2b

Raw chart source: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/us-election-2016-polls-and-odds-tracker-latest-forecast-in-race/

You will note that from a pure timing cycle perspective, the hills and valleys displayed by Clinton and Trump (which correspond to each other, quite logically) seem to follow a very specific timing cycle of approximately two months in length. Although the humps and valleys are not located exactly at the middle of this time cycle, you will note that that they are reasonably close to it. (Yes, I am aware that there is a gap between the first and second cycles. Basically, there is an inverted time cycle there, but I don’t want to over-complicate the analysis.)

Assuming the time cycles continue to play out, it is not great news for Trump, for the election will coincide with a peak for Clinton in the time cycle.

Naturally, this is not written in stone, because, as was already pointed out two paragraphs ago, time cycles can invert. However, given that the turning has probably already been formed (we are seeing higher highs and higher lows in Clinton’s blue line and lower highs and lower lows in Trump’s), this seems to be a useful predictive model for how things will turn out. In this case, we shall proceed assuming that Clinton’s chart will go higher.

Presidential Poll 2c.jpg

Raw chart source: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/0/us-election-2016-polls-and-odds-tracker-latest-forecast-in-race/

The key technical level for Clinton’s chart is 45.18, using several methods of assessing support. Should her poll level drop below this point, the time cycle may be invalidated. Interestingly, the last low for her came in 5th October at 45.2, just above this level. We shall see if that holds. If she manages to make a new high, then we can safely assume the cycle is in force.

I have left the analysis for Trump out as the charts should be approximate inverts of each other.

 

 

Advertisements